Thursday, April 19, 2007

Matt Garza: Good Upside, Close to Prime

Over at The Hardball Times, Chris Constansio continued his ranking of young players. He ranks each player by the players' developments in relation to prime and their potential. This edition ranked the best young righties in baseball, with "young" being defined as under 25.

Matt Garza came in ranked as "good upside, close to prime." Here is what Constansio said:

Matt Garza's 2006 season began in the Florida State League and ended in a major league pennant race. Garza handled nearly every promotion with ease, as he continued to strike out over one quarter of opposing batters while walking very few at every level of the minor league. He did struggle with Minnesota, but I suspect that has at lot to do with his enormous workload increase in comparison to the previous season. Garza's fastball is clearly his best pitch, but he effectively utilizes three other pitches and should be a good major league pitcher for years to come.

Garza came in behind only Felix Hernandez, Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes, and Jeremy Bonderman (who is still only 24!). That's pretty good company. From what I've seen from Garza, he's not an elite pitcher. He can be a very good pitcher, but he's not in the same league as other Twins phenoms Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano. The difference is the second pitch. Santana's changeup is one of the best pitches. Ever. Liriano has/had a sick slider. Garza has a great fastball, but I don't think he'll ever have a dominant second pitch. He has good complimentary stuff, but nothing outstanding.

What does that mean for the Twins? He should still be in the rotation, despite his early season control problems. This is purely speculation, but I think Garza has struggled a bit with his control for two reasons: (1) the piss-poor weather out East, and (2) his attempts to throw more offspeed pitches, per Terry Ryan's request.

Garza has an excellent fastball and good control will make him a very good starter. Hopefully, he gets things together quickly so he finds himself in Minnesota sooner than later.

1 comment:

MJ said...

Why do the Twins always suck against the Royals?

I've heard that Slowey might get called up before Garza. I think we should bring up both of them and cut Ponson and it is a toss up between Ortiz and Silva.